Most global regions will see moderate hotel rate growth in 2026, with geopolitical instability and uncertainty around US tariff policy "keeping a lid" on sharper increases, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor, published on Wednesday (27 August).

The Monitor ¨C based on data from Amex GBT's data lake along with inflation and GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, modelled with open-source software Prophet ¨C projects North America will be among those regions with moderate rate growth, particularly in the US, which could see a downturn in inbound demand.?

The Monitor forecasts that Mexico also will see only moderate increases with a strong hotel construction pipeline, while Canada's rate growth could be higher. Toronto has the highest projected rate increase for the region in the Monitor, up 5.8 per cent year over year, followed by Chicago (4.2 per cent), New York and San Francisco (each 4 per cent).

Amex GBT projects "relatively stable" hotel prices in Europe, though certain cities will have sharper increases due to changing policies. Short-term rental restrictions in Amsterdam ¨C which also is seeing VAT increases ¨C and Barcelona could help push up rates in those cities by 11 per cent and 5.1 per cent year over year, respectively, according to the Monitor.?

Rate increases also are likely to be higher in the UK due to increases to employer national insurance contributions, which will increase the wages that hoteliers pay employees. Amex GBT projects rates will increase 4.2 per cent year over year in London, 3.9 per cent in Manchester and 5.7 per cent in Edinburgh.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Amex GBT projects strong rate growth for India, though not as high as rate increases this year. That includes a 6.4 per cent year-over-year rate increase in Bengaluru, a 5.7 per cent increase in Hyderabad and a 5.3 per cent increase in Mumbai. The Monitor projects more moderate increases in China with some cities seeing rate declines, including Guangzhou, where it projects rates will decline 0.7 per cent year over year.

Latin America hotels should have a "strong 2026" with growing demand from international visitors, according to Amex GBT. The Monitor projects rates to increase year over year by 5.6 per cent in Buenos Aires, 5 per cent in Rio de Janeiro, 2 per cent in Bogot¨¢ and 0.9 per cent in Santiago.

In the Middle East and Africa, Amex GBT projects moderate rate increases due to a strong construction pipeline in the Middle East. That includes a year-over-year rate increase of 3.1 per cent in Abu Dhabi, 1.4 per cent in Doha, 2 per cent in Dubai and 2.3 per cent in Riyadh. The Monitor projects a sharper rate increase of 4.7 per cent year over year in Cape Town, which has "high occupancy and a limited supply of hotels with security accreditation," according to the Monitor.